South Ossetia, Georgia and Russian Involvement
Posted on Saturday, August 9, 2008I feel I should give you Bock’s view on the deepening crisis in Georgia. You’d probably demand it anyway.
My view is very simple: Georgia is wrong. Condoleezza Rice is wrong and NATO is wrong.
South Ossetia and North Ossetia are one and the same. South Ossetia should not be part of Georgia.
In this case, Russia is right.
The West should not become involved and I hope we don’t allow ourselves to be dragged into something that’s none of our business.
____________________
UPDATE
12th August 2008
The Russians moved in and made shit of Georgia. How was it hard to see what would happen? How would that not happen?
Is Saakashvili the biggest idiot ever to call himself a politician?
There in the Kremlin, you have the smartest, most ruthless bastard in the whole world. Putin. A man who believes in his own place in history. A man who gives not one solitary shit for the individual human being. A man without feeling.
It doesn’t do to provoke such a man. It especially doesn’t do to provoke a man who takes a view of history spanning 500 years.
Did Saakashvili really believe the Americans would ever come to his aid?
Is he crazy?
What a fucking idiot. It doesn’t matter if he’s right or if he’s wrong. It makes no difference: all that’s important is what’s achievable, and it was never achievable to provoke Russia and win. Never. This is a fight he can’t win and I just don’t understand why he started it.
As a good friend of mine says, Don’t bring a knife to a gunfight.
Don’t start a fight if you have no hope of winning.
What an idiot!
Stumble it!
August 9th, 2008
I have to say I’m with you on this one. The knee jerk reaction will always be anti-Russia and we need to stop and think.
August 9th, 2008
The Georgian president is on all the TV stations of the world whinging and whining and calling for a cease-fire and blaming the Russians.
This dangerous situation would not have happened if it weren’t for Georgian aggression in the first place; they are the one that launched the attack and the Russians have stepped in to protect their fellow countrymen.
It seems suicidal for such a small country to provoke a super-power. Of course, they’ve been fighting G.W. Bush’s Daddy’s war in Iraq so they’re not entirely without friends (of a sort).
I wonder if the Neo-Cons have a hand in all of this?
August 9th, 2008
I wish Putin hadn’t had Anna Politkovskaya assasinated - she would have reported on the conflict with great clarity as was her wont.
August 9th, 2008
There are some very disturbing images of the bombing of Gori, 80 km (50 miles) from Tbilisi coming through. If this isn’t handled carefully then I fear that the West will get involved and many more innocent people will die. Georgia is indeed wrong, Russia is right on this occasion.
August 10th, 2008
I think the Russians will use the opportunity to further their Geo-Political and social aims in the region. As well as defending those expatriate Russians who live there and expelling the Georgian incursion they will seek to control a key energy corridor which will inevitably impact upon the interests of Western Oil Companies in general and surely upon the fortunes of GWB and his cronies in particular.
The Western position is unequivocal: the territorial ‘integrity’ of Georgia must be maintained.
I’m wondering how Putin will treat these kind of suggestions in his own backyard, but I can imagine.
All the wrong ingredients are there.
A confrontation of Cuban proportions seems on the cards and we have Joker in the White House.
This is no time for a loose cannon in the Pentagon.
Surely there are some sensible people in the Judiciary or among the Joint Chiefs of Staff who will do the right thing even now at this late stage and lock the lunatic away.
How can the possible fate of the world (let’s hope it doesn’t come to that) be in the hands of such a clown?
August 10th, 2008
By Western position does this include the EU?
France and Germany were against the inclusion of Georgia into NATO because they feared that a sitation like this would develop.
Two nasty states at war with each other. It’ll be a bad war. As wars go.
Oh Bock I think it will be our business because I’m fairly sure there’s a pipeline carrying something through Georgia….
August 10th, 2008
NATO, US and EU
August 10th, 2008
Thank Jebus for the olympics all those great ideals of peaceful nations of the world united in marching as one for unity, truth, love and understanding.. oh yeah sorry forgot it’s on in China. I think a strongly worded letter should sort it all out.
August 10th, 2008
The situation has the potential to become extremely bad for all of us. I don’t know how to call this one.
August 10th, 2008
No way Bock
This is just another in a long line of Russian attempts to dominate its smaller neighbours. Can I remind everyone that Gori is outside the disputed region of South Ossetia yet the Ruskies have bombed it to bits. Ireland should be standing up for Georgia. Georgia is an independent country. Its not Moscow’s turf anymore.
August 10th, 2008
Ted -
You have to look at what’s achievable. There’s nothing the West can do about this without risking provoking a worse conflict, and possibly a disastrous one for the whole world.
I wouldn’t imagine Putin or Medvedev are too worried what Ireland thinks of them.
August 10th, 2008
I accept your point,
Just a bit suprised that you and your readers appear to be on Russia’s side.
August 10th, 2008
I think the Russians have a point. I can’t speak for my readers though.
August 10th, 2008
Well to be fair so do the Georgians.The disputed region would exist if it had not been populated by ethnic Russians during the Soviet era.
And yes we can go back and forth as to who did what first but let’s not kid ourselves about altruistic Russian aims here.
August 10th, 2008
Associated Press are reporting that the US have begun to fly Georgian troops serving in Iraq back home. I hope this doesn’t escalate things further. The Geogian demagogue would like nothing better than a full-scale face-off between East and West, it seems.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i3OehGI9KkCKf8aXpxgzkF6ewA4AD92FHP7O0
August 10th, 2008
Dev -
One thing you couldn’t accuse the Russians of is altruism and I’m certainly not trying to portray them as the good guys, but all politics is ugly and I think this is a classic case of realpolitik
Stail -
The last thing the world needs is for Dubya to get himself involved in this.
August 11th, 2008
Here, in Russia it looks like NATO troops killed 2000 civilian russians on the board of Russia.
The West should be punished.
I am disappointed…
August 11th, 2008
What planet did that happen on Mike?. Do you have a Russian equivalent of FOX spewing out that tripe?. If “NATO” troops killed 2000 Russian civilians on this one, the survivors of WW3 would be living with the consequences and ducking the acid dripping down with the rain.
Georgia are not part of NATO, much as they might like the notion that they think they are. Buying toys from Uncle Sam and sending 2000 troops to Iraq doesn’t count as a membership credential, nor does taking on a doomed-from-the-start military adventure in the hope that the West will come to their aid.
Nonetheless, now that Russia have come to the rescue of the people of South Ossetia and have taken the timely opportunity to “liberate” Abkhazia, might it be pertinent to ask when the Russian minorities in Ukraine, and more to the point, those in EU & NATO member states, Latvia and Estonia, can expect Putin to send in the cavalry once they start whining about their oppressors?
On the other hand, it’s time that NATO stopped trying to up the ante any further in encouraging states like Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to consider membership of what is still effectively a Cold War Club. The Russian paranoia is understandable in such circumstances and there’s little doubt that these actions in Georgia has as much to do with serving a reminder that the Bear still has claws and is prepared to swipe out at any further provocation as it has with Georgia’s attempt to re-impose it’s authority on South Ossetia. Something they can forget for a long time.
August 11th, 2008
Let’s hope this is a warning to client states not to fight proxy wars on behalf of the US.
August 11th, 2008
For all those on the Russian side. Let’s think about this a little closer…and make informed comments.
No secret Russian continues to support the northern areas of Ossetia with arms…and the ability to fight and create havoc against Georgia. (Sounds just like the Iranians with the terrorists groups in Iraq..as they are continually suppling arms to create havoc in Iraq against the US.)
So what does Russia have to gain from this. Read up on it. Oil, hydroelectrical, chemicals, which translates into $ is at stake..always a great motivator across the entire world. Not to mention, the exposed war……Islamics against the Christians. Everyone wants to deny that religious wars are not at hand around the war…but reality is that the outspoken Islamic regime’s are really working across the entire region.
August 11th, 2008
>the exposed war……Islamics against the Christians.
Rob, georgians are Orthodox Christians, just like ossetins and russians.
I do not approve that we are absolutely right, I simply show, how it perceive in Russia if it is interesting to you.
August 11th, 2008
Northern Ossetia is part of the Russian Federation, Rob, so there’s nothing underhand about that aspect. For sure Russia are going to grab the Southern Ossetian province and Abkhazia, according to reports they’re now moving into Georgia “proper” as well. So there’s a possibility they will go for control of that strategic oil pipeline running through the country.
Ultimately the Georgian regime brought this upon themselves, they must have known the Russians were not going to stand idly by (apologies to Honest Jack) and allow the Georgians massacre people loyal to Russia. It would have been seen as a sign of weakness. Question is, who put this madcap notion into Saakashvili’s head. The outcome for him may well be a one-way ticket out with a puppet regime installed in a rump Moscow-loyal Georgian state.
Don’t see any direct Islamic connection in this particular conflict, are you speaking of surrounding muslim countries or regions getting involved there?
August 11th, 2008
Sneaky, underhand, authortarian Russian bully-boys . They suffer from severe inferiority complex and have to pararde in front of the world in 18th centuary style to show us all how strong they are….. Nobody cares! They “have” to be a world power… result…. probably the most hated country in the world… even more than the Brits. They have behave like this for nearly 500 years… since Yermak marched over the Urals in 1591 and started butchering the natives, they haven’t stopped since.
August 13th, 2008
It’s not a brainer: Georgia provoked Russia. More to that, Georgia had been pushed into this conflict by Condi. The American message is simple: “If you want to join NATO you have to sort out your internal problems by December 2008, when Bush’s out of the office”
And make no mistake: Russia was ready for this. More to that, 58th Army which entered SO is battle-scared and ready: it is one of the elite armies which fought in Chechnya.
Russians had Chechens fighting on their side: “Vostok” (”East”) and “Zapad” (”West”) Chechen commandoes were the most feared detachments of Russian Army in this conflict, reminding Georgians of what Chechens did in Abkazhia in 1992-1993.
The sole fault is lying with Saakashvili and his American “friends”. He miscalculated: instead of complaining to internaional organisation, Russia went in.
Unfortunately, people died.
August 13th, 2008
That’s a fair enough summary.
August 13th, 2008
Funny thing, but somehow someone decided to wage their own war. From Dublin.
I don’t care who did this, but to be honest, it was a bit scary. I asked my wife not to talk Russian in public places.
I’m not complaining, and not going to pursue this anymore.
What actually suprises me that this stuff appeared after BBC changed its attitude to the conflict on Sunday afternoon.
Have a look: http://tricky73.blogspot.com/
August 16th, 2008
Bock
It seems that in response to all this Poland and the U.S.A. have agreed to the deployment of anti-missile missiles on Polish territory . As a result Russia have threatened to “Nuke” Poland,
I am reminded of advice from the “good old days”
IN THE EVENT OF THERMONUCULAR ATTACK PLACE YOUR HEAD FIRMLY BETWEEN YOUR LEGS AND KISS YOUR ASS GOODBYE .
It seems sad that the world should be wiped out over Oil. There is only a few years left of the stuff anyway.
When Empires fight the little People die. The E.U. getting off the plane with “peace in our time “ seems a little too familiar for comfort.
August 16th, 2008
Meanwhile, without a trace of irony, the Chimp condemns the invasion of sovereign states.
These people in the Kremlin are utterly ruthless. They’ll pull the trigger if they consider it to be in their broader strategic interest. As somebody said to me the other day, there’s only one way to deal with Russia in its present mood. Put down whatever you’re holding and back away slowly.
August 17th, 2008
Bock
Da! Comrade. I think I shall have to learn Russian and standard Chineese ,just to be on the safe side. A spot of rape and pillage, burning towns,villages,cities, Well it is only to be expected of “The Empreror of the Universe GeorgeII” and “Tzar of all the Russias Putin”.
“Or perhaps by opposing we may defeat them.”
W.Shakespear
August 18th, 2008
where’s Barrett,Quinn and Michael D,and the rest of the anti-war rabble?……….oops,sorry.silly me,their bullshit only applies to the U.S and Israel,showing their real colours again I see,that’s some kind of ‘Socialism’ indeed…….
August 20th, 2008
Johnnypiles
Perhaps our atoms may meet someday on the outer edges of the Universe. We can have an intelligent conversation about whether we died by “good” or “bad” nuclear devices.
I am not concerned what flag the incoming I.C.B.m’s are flying .
August 23rd, 2008
That’s right Johnny piles. Ethnic Cleansing, War and threat of Nuclear strikes are OK according to the “Anti War” brigade. Unless it’s America. I’ve heard nothing about this illegal war, or ‘it’s about oil’ from the anti war brigade this time. True of Iraq. But they are silent about this one. They are great pointing out the hypocrisy of America. Not much else. Human rights abuse OK!!!!!!!!!! except in Guantanamo………
August 23rd, 2008
I’d prefer to be part of the anti-war brigade than the pro-war brigade.
August 23rd, 2008
Bock
There is a school of thought that suggest the Polish based Anti-Missile’s are designed to detonate incoming missiles over Europe rather than allowing them to reach the “Homeland”. The logic I suppose is the U.S. could “liberate” what is left. After about twenty thousand years of course!
Perhaps we should divert some of the” boy’s” from Shannon and take over the Russian Embassy? Or perhaps some of our “Good Old boy” Bloggers would like to try a spot of “water boarding” in Guantamo or having Pakistan apply a razor to their genitals? In the interest of freedom and justice of course!
Two wrongs do not make a right. Unless God is on your side, then your side can do no wrong.
August 23rd, 2008
Before God makes any major decisions, he runs them by the White House.
August 23rd, 2008
Bock
Naturally, if not Homeland Security would not allow any visit’s to God’s property in the U.S. Besides
this ,George II is simply following precedent.
Vlad Who impaled twenty nine thousand of his own people to defend Christendom against the Ottoman Empire.
Adolph Hitler who decided to rid the World of the “Perfidious Jew”
Ivan the terrible who carried with him pan’s in which he had People who displeased him fried alive.
What would God know about “real politick”?
George II has admitted to regular conversations with God , allegedly.
Perhaps Putin chats with Lenin’s corpse?
August 23rd, 2008
*yawn*
OK..class..put down the crayons and listen.
Here’s the lesson of the day.
The Russians will get what they want in S.Ossetia,Abkazhia and probably Poti too.
In return the US gets it’s missle shield installed in Poland.The Russians will protest strongly (for internal public consumption) and will point to Georgia as a demonstration of how thin their patience is.
This has already been decided.
Here endth today’s lesson in Realpolitik.
August 24th, 2008
I agree Devin. It would no longer be a question by Eastern European countries asking America about their missiles being planted in their territory ‘what for?’ as to now ‘How many do you need?’ ‘Is it enough?’ ‘Can they be armed with nukes?’ etc. It’s all gone to shit….
Bock
I am not pro war but I’m finding the Anti War crowd not much better. Ethnic cleansing seems to suit both sides. Both suport certain types of war. Both sides support the control of oil by a particular asshole side. I read in the paper the other day by an anti war guy that he didn’t condemn this war because ‘only’ a couple of thousand died this one compared to Iraq. America has been in Iraq 4-5 years? Give it time…..
August 24th, 2008
Devin
Sorry about that, History can be so boring. Especially when all we have to do is wait a while . What goes around comes around. I do hope that you are correct in your learned assumptions.
Radiation sickness is ,as I understand , a slow and very unpleasant death.
August 24th, 2008
Gary,
History ( as far as I’m aware) if the study of past events.My statement concerned future events.I’m an avid student of history and find a predictable template in the Cuban Missle Crisis that can be applied here.
As you so succintly put it “What goes around comes around”.Indeed.If an assumption can be construed as ‘learned’ as you posit then this would be one.
My ennui with this stems not from the events themselves but rather the predictable ineffectual bleating that ‘right minded’ people engage in in response to such events.
Radiation sickness is quite nasty.Or so I read/hear.Not having had it I can only imagine what it would be like.Wouldn’t want to making any assumptions now.Learned or otherwise.
August 24th, 2008
Handbags, folks?
August 24th, 2008
Bock
at ten paces.
August 25th, 2008
Bock
Apparently the U.S. are delivering “humanitarian” aid in warships to Georgia. A bit on the lines of of having the groceries delivered by battle tank? That would tend to mess up the front lawns?
August 25th, 2008
Hmmm. Upper Chamber of Russian Parliament just recognised independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Wonder, would it go one of the following ways:
1. Both countries will have the same status as North Cyrus - i.e. they will be recognised only by Russia
2. Both countries will have the same status as Kosovo - only a handfull of countries will recognise them
3. Kosovo status will be swapped for one of these two countries: Georgia will forget about these two, Serbia - about Kosovo
Any thoughts?
August 25th, 2008
Option 2. Sleepwaker. Recognition from Russia, China and their client states…Belarus, Burma and so on.
Then in a few months both “states” will vote to join the Russian Federation. In “retaliation” expect the partially recognised Kosovo to be told by both Washington and Brussels become part of a greater Albania.
Meanwhile…….Next stop: Ukraine.
September 14th, 2008
Mike, I am interested in keeping contact on how ongoing effects are perceived in Russia. Please do not bother with naysayers of what you write. Based on what I have read in respect to histories leading up to confrontation, I firmly believe Vladimer Putin and his cabinet, have whole-heartedly taken on roles of intermediaries in international affairs; especially pertaining to the middle-east, and only act in defense on provocation. I do not believe the U.S. has a rightful stake in confrontation in Georgia, and would not be there unless for economic reasons, such as an interest in creating indebtedness from the Georgians for the purpose of controls on oil, and pursuing industrial war contracts. The human sacrifice in such events is unconscionable. Old men have tired, feeble, and careless minds–as proven. I cannot blame Russia for it’s defense, although I’m not privy to it’s undertakings, except what can be read online. I wonder if you have any history of opposition to your President in regard to any of his cabinet’s policies, or if you also see them as taking neutral peacekeeping and humanitarian roles in international affairs?
September 14th, 2008
2 Nutz
For the truth to say I am not a great expert in politics, I am just a scientist.
Nevertheless, let me a few things to note:
0. In Russia there are problems with pluralism. Only unpopular officials in the Russian government can afford to disagree with Putin. In the pro parties have enough idiots who have received their place through their popular positions.
1. U.S. and other countries really are not very worried about these issues (except only in terms of Russia’s foreign policy). U.S. worried only for their interests, it must be remembered.
2. However, the U.S. needs the grounds for criticism of Russia, the fact that it is in the interests of the United States.
3. People in Russia feel any opposition silly, perhaps because we have not been smart opposition.
4. People in Russia believe “democracy” is bad, because last time when the country declared a “democracy”, most people turned on the brink of extinction. People do not want to die and lose the future because of the incomprehensible “democracy”.
5. So if Russia needs to develop “democracy” and “opposition”, then they need some other terms. Or any other good example that people can understand that there is “democracy” and “opposition” in practice.
There is no need for people to read lectures about “something” if ten years ago because of “something” people have been forced to save themselves, their future and their children.
In the end, we are not so different.
October 3rd, 2008
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