Oct 302014
 

The Irish Examiner ran a Daily Mail-style article today, featuring the wisdom of one  James Madden, described as a forecaster with Exacta Weather.  It predicted a big freeze this winter.

Let me just share with you what this weather visionary told the Irish Examiner.

As we progress throughout November, it is going to become gradually colder across many parts of Ireland, in particular from around the mid-month point when it is likely to become exceptionally cold at times.

This early start to what is likely to be a harsh winter is also likely to be accompanied by a number of potentially widespread snow events within this period and into the start of December.

The parts most at risk of experiencing snow within this period will be to the north and east of Ireland and some of this cold could prove to be quite significant at times, even across some much lower levels of the country.”

The worst-case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/2010, which was the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/2011, which experienced the coldest December in 100 years.

However, the alternative and slightly more unfavourable scenario could see a winter period on a similar par to 2012/2013 developing, which would still support a colder and snowier-than-average winter throughout 2014/2015.

If any month could prove to be very severe or potentially record-breaking in terms of the cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop, then January looks like being the main contributor for this on current indications.

February and into spring may also not escape an extension of these waves of cold and widespread snow at times. However, there are some conflicting signals for December at present, which could introduce some milder and rather unsettled interludes of weather at times.

Got that?  As we progress throughout November, it is going to become gradually colder across many parts of Ireland.  Who could ever have guessed that it would get colder as November went on?  But if that was all James predicted, he’d be just one more astounding visionary.  Have a look at his other astonishing predictions.

This early start to what is likely to be a harsh winter is also likely to be accompanied by a number of potentially widespread snow events within this period and into the start of December.

Got that?  There’s likely to be a number of potentially widespread snow events.  Unfortunately, no doubt due to the pressure of time, James hasn’t defined what he means by the words number, potentially, widespread or snow events but no doubt that information will come in due course.

How about this bit?  The parts most at risk of experiencing snow within this period will be to the north and east of Ireland and some of this could could prove to be quite significant at times, even across some much lower levels of the country.

Or in other words, James predicts that the Irish winter will be very like the Irish winter.  He goes on to explain that the worst case will be very like the worst case, though unfortunately he hasn’t had a chance to define his term plausible scenario:

The worst-case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/2010, which was the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/2011, which experienced the coldest December in 100 years.

If the worst case doesn’t happen, says James, the coming winter could easily be colder than usual or at least a lot like last winter.   … the alternative and slightly more unfavourable scenario could see a winter period on a similar par to 2012/2013 developing, which would still support a colder and snowier-than-average winter throughout 2014/2015.

But perhaps the most staggering of James’s predictions is that January, always the coldest month, will probably be the coldest month, yet again, as always.  If any month could prove to be very severe or potentially record-breaking in terms of the cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop, then January looks like being the main contributor for this on current indications.

Not a man to give false hope, James points out that it might easily be cold in February too, though he does concede that  the weather might get better every now and then.  February and into spring may also not escape an extension of these waves of cold and widespread snow at times. However, there are some conflicting signals for December at present, which could introduce some milder and rather unsettled interludes of weather at times.

James represents something called Exacta Weather which charges money for this sort of technical wizardry.  He’s no stranger to predicting icy winters in all the usually reliable news sources such as this article in the Daily Express predicting a big freeze in 2012.

Now, while it is true that his blog predicted freezing conditions for the end of October and that in reality the temperature is in the mid-teens with many trees still bearing leaves, my theory is that somebody hacked his website and placed these false predictions on it to discredit him.

How he achieves such astonishing accuracy without access to a billion-dollar supercomputer or any underlying scientific theory remains a mystery, especially since no known researcher or meteorological service has managed to predict weather three or four months into the future.

If he’d only write a scientific paper on his methods, he’d be a candidate for the Nobel physics prize, and I’d be the first to congratulate him.

Damn the nay-sayers who laugh at him and call him a crank.   If James was a crank, all these people wouldn’t be paying good money to read the weather predictions on his website.  Damn the Guardian for asking Exacta if the company consisted of one undergraduate student and a computer.  Instead of ignoring the Guardian’s questions,  James should reply and shame them for being so disrespectful.

Who needs scientific studies, peer-reviewed research, a solid theoretical basis and sound evidence?  If it’s good enough for the Irish Examiner and the Daily Mail, it’s good enough for me.

 

 

 

  11 Responses to “Astonishing Long-Distance Weather Forecast from Exacta”

Comments (11)
  1.  

    Saw this yesterday, I remember one of the RTE Meteorologists being interviewed last year who said that basically any more than a week out is guesswork. Will have to wait and see.

  2.  

    I don’t know what you’d be waiting to see, since James didn’t actually predict anything.

  3.  

    Hope you don’t mind but I’ve posted your blog on my FB page….

    https://www.facebook.com/pages/Exacta-Weather-the-truth-behind-the-headlines/231254790375886

  4.  

    Not at all. Post away.

  5.  

    “Will have to wait and see” what the winter weather is like Bock. Probably cold and pissing rain for the most part.

  6.  

    RTE are just as bad with their satellite predictions…
    Anyway, as I tell people, if they can predict more that 3 days of weather, they might as well give out the winning lotto numbers while they’re at it

  7.  

    I predict some time around march the temperate will pick up, with a warm front coming from the whest.
    I say this dressed in my best leather outfit dressed as Jean Byrne.. therefore it is fact.
    All future predictions are subject to fee. This one is on the house.

  8.  

    Arthemis,

    May the rain come down in buckets for you.

  9.  

    reminds me of the Zig & Zag forecast………..

    Tomorrow will begin in the morning with light spreading from the east.
    It will be about 24 hours long and there will be lots of weather all over the country.

    just as helpful as this Exacta bollocks.

  10.  

    It is the start of March and here in Lincolnshire we are still waiting for the big snow event that was forecast last November we have only had about 1 cm so far this winter 12 air frosts since the start of this winter,he is a complete all round failure.

  11.  

    I laughed my head off at this article. You said what I have thought about james and so called exacta weather every year yet his c..p turns up everywhere year on year.. i guess he likes to imply what everyone likes to hear. Well snow lovers like me

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